Paul Romer

Promoters claim that AI is so powerful that it is close to being sentient. The reaction by Paul Romer, a Nobel Laureate in Economics who has been following the tech sector for four decades, is that close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Since he clarified the fundamental difference between the dismal economics of scarce objects and the much more optimistic economics of ideas, he has seen wave after wave in which the tech sector uses this insight as an excuse to over-promise and under-deliver. His reaction to the new AI wave that took over after the collapse of the cryptocurrency wave, is that all the hype is based on a very dubious achievement: large language models (LLMs) can make up claims that have zero basis in fact, but which sound so convincing that many people believe them. As he notes in this clip, there are use cases where AI can generate real value – he cites the example of autonomous tractors that follow a leader piloted by a farmer – but the tech sector has failed to deliver on its grandiose promise that we’d soon have fully autonomous automobiles. Progress came rapidly in the beginning, and we’ve been close to having them for years now. He predicts that this is the pattern we’ll see over and over again, rapid progress that brings us close to the promised outcome. But close doesn’t count when lives are at stake.

In this presentation, Nobel Prize recipient Professor Paul Romer reviews the laissez-faire school of economic thought, which since the 1960s has extolled the benefits of a free market and cast government as an impediment to those benefits. He shows how, in the relative calm of the 1980s to the early 2000s, this mindset led to the erosion of the government’s capacity to prevent and manage crises. He then offers advice on how to respond to the far-ranging turbulence and frustration which, stirred by the 2008 financial crisis and intensified by the Covid-19 pandemic, have bred support for authoritarian politicians who promise a government that can get things done. As Romer demonstrates, the lesson from history is that neither laissez-faire nor authoritarian technocracy can sustain long-run progress. In the decades to come as in the past, he argues, success and growth will belong to those nations that best meet one fundamental challenge: maintaining a democratically accountable government that is restricted in scope but strong, effective, and efficient in doing its job.

The most important insight from economics is that progress is a race to discover new ideas that free us from the constraints imposed by scarce resources. For the last 10,000 years, new ideas have been winning the race and humans have made dramatic progress. Nobel Prize recipient Professor Paul Romer says resources are like the ingredients in cooking, ideas are the recipes and progress is the result of millions of small ideas discovered by people working all over the world, some in research, others in the workplace. In this keynote, Professor Romer will discuss the important role leaders and educators can play as guardians and defenders of innovation and experimentation. He’ll explain why it is important to stay open to new ideas from people of all ages and backgrounds, and to be willing to boldly implement ideas that may be outside their comfort zones. If a nation has a market system that encourages an ongoing process of discovery, says Romer, it will make progress that raises the quality of life for everyone.

Why is populism rising? Why are we facing a new era of trade friction? How can countries cooperate in the face of intense nationalism? In this presentation, Professor Paul Romer draws on his work as a leading global economist – including his research on technological innovation that earned him his Nobel Prize – to address the most important macro trends and challenges facing globally minded leaders today. By showing how trends that enabled the current challenges can be harnessed to create future opportunities and improve the lives of citizens, Romer makes a compelling and optimistic case for why the best is yet to come.

In an era of growing divisions, mistrust and inflammatory rhetoric, Nobel Prize recipient Professor Paul Romer rises above politics, offering his macro perspective on what the U.S. can and should do to compete with other nations, recognizing that the most successful outcomes can be beneficial for all parties. Focusing on opportunities for growth and innovation across the country, he addresses how updating our thinking on competition can unlock new progress in everything from innovation and business to economic development and education; how redefining our nation’s relationships with innovators and scientists is critical to solving big problems; and how we can leverage the things we can all agree on to continue the grand experiment that is America – regardless of the challenges posed from outside or within.